2025-2026 Playoffs: What Every Team Does Well And Where They Fall Short

The NFL is a league that prioritizes parity over all else, and it has showed this year. Only two of the eight division winners from last year won their respective division again this year and a lot of the familiar faces from last year’s playoffs find themselves on the road for their early playoff matchups. With all these new faces bursting onto the scene it is especially difficult to predict a Super Bowl champion.

On the AFC side, there is far less dominant offense and elite quarterback play than we’re used to. This year, the AFC has generally been a conference of dominant defense and stable offense. The NFL’s most explosive offenses, however, have been on the NFC side of things.

The playoffs are truly wide open this year with no obvious champion, this will be a true 14 team race. But what does each team do well, and what weaknesses might get them knocked out?

NFC #1 Seed: Seattle Seahawks

Boasting one of the best home-field advantages in the league and a first round bye, the Seahawks will reap the benefits of a strong 14-win regular season. How’d they do it? With a combination of high-flying offense and suffocating defense under second-year head coach Mike MacDonald.

MacDonald’s defensive system is all about exotic pressure packages and unique disguised coverages. His players run these deceptive plays to perfection. All the defensive backs can rush the quarterback and all the defensive linemen can cover. This versatility is essential as this unit is the clearest example of the recent positionless player movement in the modern world of NFL defense.

The clearest example of this is rookie Nick Emmanwori. He was a player drafted as a safety but has lined up as a nickel, high safety, outside corner, box safety and defensive end.

The rest of their secondary has also been remarkably stout with their two young corners, Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon shining alongside safeties Coby Bryant and Julian Love. All the defensive backs are capable of covering a lot of space, which helps with all the disguised coverages, while also being able to come down into the box or flats and make tackles.

The defensive front is headlined by the versatile Ernest Jones, a linebacker capable of blitzing and getting past some of the NFL’s best linemen, while also being able to cover some of the league’s best tight ends. In front of him, they have a deep defensive line with a stout interior of Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy.

This defense, in totality, has been one of the league’s best and their ability to show up in absolute must-have moments has been exceptional. This is made clear by their league-low third-down conversion rate allowed.

That defense was very strong last year too. The big difference between this team and last year’s is their ability to play complementary offense. This change was sparked by two main changes.

One of those changes was the shift from Geno Smith, a gunslinger who took the third-most sacks in the league and threw the second-most interceptions in 2024, to Sam Darnold who has taken roughly half the number of sacks. This has allowed the defense to truly take control of games, while they still can generate explosives with vertical threat Rashid Shaheed and the superstar breakout receiver Jaxson Smith Njigba, whose impact cannot be understated.

The other major change to their offense was Klint Kubiak taking over for Ryan Grubb as their offensive coordinator. Kubiak’s style of using heavy personnel to force opposing defenses out of their nickel defenses has worked wonders, as Seattle’s offense feels remarkably comfortable throwing the football with an extra tight end, fullback or, in some cases, offensive lineman on the field.

As a few teams have showcased throughout this season though, this offensive approach can be bested when teams call their bluff. Even when faced with a light box the Seahawks are still in the lower half of the league in rushing EPA (Expected Points Added) and rushing success rate. They act like they can dominate you with their ground game by using heavy formations but in reality they’re below average and they just want to throw the ball.

The other big concern is Sam Darnold’s occasional collapses. While he has been a good quarterback throughout the season, when he gets beat, he gets beaten badly. This was shown by their Week 11 matchup with the Rams where he threw four interceptions. It was also on display during the Vikings’ playoff loss last year. When teams can either confuse him schematically or get consistent pressure on him, he collapses.

NFC #2 Seed: Chicago Bears

First-year head coach Ben Johnson has completely changed the culture in Chicago. A team that was once known for constant coaching miscues now has a coach of the year candidate.

Johnson has specifically done wonders for Caleb Williams, keeping him comfortable in a unit where he is the ace up the sleeve as opposed to the engine of the offense. When a play needs to be made, few quarterbacks are more reliable than the former Heisman Trophy winner. His off-script ability along with his one-of-one arm strength have made this team dangerous in third-and-long situations and the two minute drill.

How has Johnson kept his young quarterback so level-headed? By building one of the NFL’s best offensive lines. Behind this line, Caleb has had the NFL’s highest average time to throw while also havingone of the bottom-five sack rates. This can also be credited to the run game keeping the pass rush honest and allowing Caleb to work off play-action at one of the five highest rates in the league.

The Bears have no trouble moving players off the line and their running backs take advantage of this well. D’Andre Swift patiently waits for the line to open holes in the defense, while Kyle Monangai rides the momentum of the line and pushes it further. In classic Ben Johnson fashion, it is a true thunder-and-lightning duo with one strong power-back and a shifty scat-back.

On the defensive side, this rendition of the Monsters of the Midway prides itself on their ability to force turnovers. They have forced a turnover on 18.3% of opposing offensive drives. That is the highest mark since 2019.

Their down-to-down consistency isn’t great though. They can’t consistently get pressure on the quarterback, and when their corners aren’t getting interceptions, they’re getting burned. Nahshon Wright is the clearest example of what this defense truly is. He has five interceptions but he has also allowed five touchdowns and over 600 yards.

Any play, a quarterback can throw a huge touchdown against this defense, but at the same time, the Bears can force a game-changing turnover at any moment. This is how defensive back coach Al Harris has taught his guys to play the game. JaQuan Brisker, Kevin Byard, and Jaylon Johnson were all taught to play with the ball-hawking mindset.

That high-risk high-reward approach can be a huge advantage for this team but it also can, and has, been their biggest downfall. Playing turnover-dependent football when the team is bottom-ten in pressure rate can end very poorly as we’ve seen in their week 17 loss to the 49ers and their week nine shootout with the Joe Flacco-led Bengals.

The Bears are young though, and they have nothing to lose. Last year, the Washington Commanders showed how much an ahead-of-schedule team is capable of when they have a young superstar quarterback and nothing to lose. It’d be idiotic to write them off.

NFC #3 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are the reigning Super Bowl champions, and over the offseason there were people arguing that their 2024-2025 roster was the most talented ever assembled. Howie Roseman is a madman, and even after losing a few major pieces the expectation was that this team would still hit the ground running and potentially repeat as champions.

Although they were able to win their division, many would consider this Eagles team severely disappointing, primarily on the offensive side of the ball.

Many knew Kellen Moore’s shoes would be difficult to fill, but the level of ineptitude that we’ve seen from this talented offensive unit couldn’t have been predicted by even the most pessimistic Eagles fans.

Jalen Hurts is a great quarterback, but to get the most out of him, the scheme has to be molded to fit his skill set. He cannot operate a traditional drop-back passing game at the level of Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, but he’s one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league. From the quick passing game to the deep shots, he has pinpoint accuracy. This was why Kellen Moore’s single-read system, built around RPOs and go-balls, was so effective.

Of course, Moore wouldn’t have been able to do that if his run game wasn’t as historically productive as it was last year. Defenses feeling forced to scheme around limiting their ground attack was the key, but Kevin Patullo’s offense has completely lacked that element.

The lack of designed carries for Jalen Hurts along with the generally poorly designed blocking concepts and the offensive line regressing has caused this run game to take a massive step back.

By extension, the offense as a whole hasn’t been reliable, with just seven games over 21 points, it is difficult to have confidence in this offensive unit.

It has been the defense, however, that has allowed them to win games. Even when the offense cannot complete a single pass in the second half (which has happened three times this season) the defense shows up and allows them to win the game.

Jordan Davis has had a breakout season, complementing Jalen Carter to create the best interior defensive line in the sport. As always, the top end talent across this defensive line is great but the depth is what allows it to work so well. Jaelan Phillips may be scary on his own but being able to get the most out of him because he rotated out for a few plays with Jaylex Hunt is what puts this front on a whole different level.

Unlike the offense, the Eagles’ defense was able to maintain its coordinator. Vic Fangio is the grandfather of the split-field coverage renaissance, and this defensive approach works just as well now in Philadelphia as it did in Chicago seven years ago.

Fangio rarely sends pressure, he trusts his front four to get to the quarterback and trusts the other seven to do their jobs in match zone coverage. This is a difficult task but this group of defenders has been delivering.

Quinyon Mitchell has been a true lockdown corner and Cooper Dejean has consistently made tackles and limited yards after the catch. These two have been the backbone of their stout defense.

If they want to replicate last year’s success, Fangio’s unit will have to be the catalyst. It is unrealistic to expect the offense to suddenly become something they haven’t been for the entire regular season. However, we’ve seen what this defense is capable of, and the return of tackle Lane Johnson could help this offense at least look semi-consistent. This team has the guys they need, it’s just about putting together a sound operation.

NFC #4 Seed: Carolina Panthers

Because of their weaker division, the Panthers were able to make the playoffs with a losing record by virtue of a three-way tie. For that reason, they can be difficult to take seriously, but that is exactly why they’re dangerous.

In Week 13, the Panthers got a monumental upset at home. Led by a strong effort on the offensive line, they were able to run the ball 40 times for over 160 yards. Physically, the Rams are more than capable of bringing the fight to any other team in the playoffs.

A team with that much fight cannot be underestimated, and when they are, they do their best work.

They have a strong offensive line that has moved defensive lines off the ball all year long, paving lanes for Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. Their run game is top ten in rushing success rate and has single handedly won them a few games.

Signal-caller Bryce Young has taken huge steps, connecting well with receiver Tetairoa McMillan on his rookie of the year campaign. Young has been unbelievable in the clutch, making this offense scary even when playing from a deficit. In the playoffs, offenses have to be able to play from behind. I have no doubts about Young’s ability to lead a two-minute drill.

Defensively, Ejiro Evero has done a phenomenal job getting the most out of Mike Jackson and several other breakout players, but it is still their cornerstone defenders Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn that have shone.

Brown especially has been unbelievable as a run stopper, widely regarded as one of the league’s better gap-filling defensive linemen.

Despite Brown’s impact, Carolina is still at the bottom of the league in pressure rate and near the bottom in run stuff rate. Across the board the numbers don’t tell a great story about this team. Even the film shows a team that has had its moments but failed to catch lightning in a bottle and harness a good play or game into consistent success.

With all that said, on Saturday, the Panthers and Rams are going to have a rematch, once again at Bank of America Stadium. If the Rams don’t come prepared for a physical contest, they’ll likely make an early exit from the playoffs.

NFC #5 Seed: Los Angeles Rams

At one point widely regarded as an indisputable top team in the league, the Rams’ hype train has slowed down (A Week 17 loss against a subpar Falcons team can tend to hurt the media’s stock on a team).

Matthew Stafford’s gunslinging mentality is this team’s Achilles heel. The fear that any given game he can turn the ball over several times by attempting reckless throws is what caused people to cool off on this team a little bit.

However, that is also part of what makes this team great, the amount of risky throws that he is able to hit for a big gain. With Puka Nacua’s insane ball-tracking ability and reliable hands, Stafford banking on his guys is inevitable. Instead of being caught up on how this can hurt them, people should be more appreciative of how it has benefited the Rams’ offense.

In the red zone, the Rams pass at the highest rate out of any playoff team because of how much trust they have in Stafford and his ability to make tight window throws. They’ve been rewarded for their trust, scoring in the redzone at the 7th highest rate in the NFL. Their success passing in the red zone isn’t just a credit to Stafford, it’s in large part because of Davante Adams’ savvy route running allowing him to separate in the redzone with ease.

The Rams’ defense with up-and-coming defensive coordinator Chris Shula is what truly puts the team over the edge though. Shula builds his defense around stopping the big play, often even opting to put six defensive backs on the field at times.

Normally that would leave a team vulnerable against the run, but the Rams’ defensive line, led by second-year defender Jared Verse, has been so strong that teams cannot take advantage. In the modern NFL, teams want to pass, and the talent Shula has on the defensive line allows him to lock in on defending that without getting exposed on the ground.

If the defense does have a lackluster performance, the Rams’ offense is more than capable of picking up the slack, with the highest EPA per play when trailing since 2022.

The biggest roadblock for this team is that they’ll likely be on the road for the majority of their playoff run. Out of the Rams’ five losses four of them are on the road. They’re just not the same team on the road, so the inability to win the division especially hurt them.

Sean McVay has playoff experience though. It wasn’t that long ago he helped this team win a Super Bowl and this roster has everything they need to do it again.

NFC #6 Seed: San Francisco 49ers

When an offense goes the entire month of December punting just twice, the whole league should know to watch out. Despite all the injuries across this roster during the season, Kyle Shanahan was able to put together a 12-win season in the league’s strongest division.

Ironically, their player with the deepest injury history was the one that held the team together throughout the season. Even when Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle were all missing time, it was Christian McCaffrey that showed up and put the team on his back. On the brink of another season eclipsing a thousand yards both receiving and rushing, Shanahan has shown just how much of a stabilizer a do-it-all back can be for your offense.

The offense no longer has to completely rely on him though. They’re healthy. Kittle is still paving lanes in the run game and outmuscling defenders at the catch point. And Purdy has taken this unit to whole new heights. He can operate Shanahan’s West Coast system well, but when a play needs to be made off script he can be relied on in ways that Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t under Shanahan.

The team can light the scoreboard up, but I think there is valid concern about the consistency of their run game. They rank just 17th in rushing success rate and 15th in EPA per rush. In a Shanahan system that leans so heavily on the ground attack, can they still make a deep run while lacking in that area?

While they got healthier on offense, they’re still missing their defensive stars. Nick Bosa and Fred Warner were two stars for this San Francisco front and their absences are still felt across the defense.

Robert Saleh has helped this defense look competent throughout the season, but his defense has gotten picked apart by the upper-echelon offenses. The Bears scored 38 points against in Week 17 and the Rams scored 42 points against them. Those are two offenses that they can likely see in the playoffs.

But with the offensive firepower they have, they are a hard team to beat, even in a shootout. Shanahan has taken the 49ers to the Super Bowl twice as a head coach. Can this be the season he wins one?

NFC #7 Seed: Green Bay Packers

The lowest seed in the NFC may not be able to return to Lambeau for the rest of the season, but they have one of the most important advantages a team can have during January, playoff experience.

A successful run for the Packers would rely heavily on head coach Matt LaFleur who has taken this team to the NFC Championship twice. LaFleur has led the Packers to the playoffs five times in his six years, so why would this year be any different?

The hope relies on the right arm of Jordan Love, who has had an up and down season. There is no doubt that when he’s playing his best football, this Packers’ offense is a force to be reckoned with. Before benching their starters in week 18 they had the third highest EPA per play in the league.

LaFleur’s offensive designs have allowed their well-rounded receiver core to constantly put up numbers, as they created a generally explosive passing attack. They complement this with a consistent down to down run game, which doesn’t often generate big chunk gains but can consistently get four yards. This versatile offensive attack is perfect for an offensive mind like LaFleur who wants to establish the run to help the pass using play action.

LaFleur, being one of the great offensive minds of the decade, knows how to draw up plays for the “money-downs” with the second highest third down conversion rate in the NFL. These third downs are key for success in the playoffs.

X’s and O’s can only get you so far, though. At a certain point you need the Jimmies and Joes, and for Green Bay, they’re all hurt. Early this year, you could argue Tucker Kraft was the best player on their offense. His consistent hands along with his ability to find space in between zones made him look like the NFL’s next great tight end. Without him, the offense has stalled out at times.

This wasn’t their biggest injury though, as star pass rusher Micah Parsons went down with an ACL tear in a week 15 game against the Denver Broncos. Without him, the team needs to rely on their secondary, which is without starting corner Nate Hobbs. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley wants to rush four and keep seven bodies in coverage, but that is a lot harder when you lose one of the best pass rushers in the league.

The Packers’ defense has also struggled against the run all year, and with a season ending injury to Devonte Wyatt, matters will only get worse. Against Baltimore in week 17, Hafley’s defense allowed 307 yards on the ground. In the playoffs, they’ll have to face off against much stronger offensive lines.

The defensive injuries are a huge obstacle for them to deal with, but an experienced head coach with a playmaking quarterback can help cover up those unexpected weak spots.

AFC #1 Seed: Denver Broncos

With one of the league’s top defenses, Denver is one of the three teams that made it to the Super Bowl with a sophomore quarterback under center.

Bo Nix has operated the offense adequately. Sean Payton doesn’t put too much on his plate, but when he needs a play Nix has consistently shown up. The Broncos have the second-highest EPA per play when trailing and have made some of the league’s biggest comebacks of the year.

Payton isn’t just an offensive mastermind. He’s a veteran coach who has won a Super Bowl and has a complete understanding of what does and doesn’t work in the playoffs.

Payton relies heavily on his defense. While he knows how to draw up explosive plays, he calls plays conservatively, knowing that the defense alone can win the team games.

This approach has worked wonders for them because of the defense’s dominance, specifically on the line of scrimmage. Vance Joseph’s aggressive system was able to generate 68 sacks, the second-most ever by a team since the NFL started tracking sacks in 1982. Nik Bonitto is the type of pass rusher offenses want to double team on every play, but Joseph’s constant blitzes and sim pressures make it difficult to do so without keeping extra players in protection.

Joseph wouldn’t be able to blitz as often if he didn’t feel resounding confidence in his secondary, as blitzing leaves fewer bodies in coverage. Luckily he has a group that can play sticky coverage in one-on-one situations. Last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, Pat Surtain, missed some time earlier this year, but he’s still more than capable of making the NFL’s best receivers into non-factors.

The concern with Denver comes from the fact that they rarely play a complete game for all 60 minutes. This is why 11 out of their 14 wins were one-possession games. They struggle to put the nail in the coffin and often don’t start playing their best football until their backs are against the wall.

The Broncos have an elite defense but they also have a solid offense to complete the team. Even when the offense has to step up it has been able to. In an AFC where it doesn’t feel like there’s any team with the experience or well-roundedness to win the Super Bowl, the Broncos are a difficult team to pick against.

AFC #2 Seed: New England Patriots

It’s no secret that in this league, an elite quarterback completely changes everything about a team. This Patriots team is an example of this.

Drake Maye has been elite, from the accuracy to the arm strength to the off-script playmaking. He has looked like the best quarterback in the league since Week 1, leading the NFL in passing EPA. He has been the catalyst for one of the most efficient passing attacks in recent memory with his 72% completion percentage, the fifth highest mark in a single season. He hasn’t reached that historic completion mark by taking the easy passes. He’s tied for the second highest air yards per attempt in the NFL this season.

So, the Patriots have a quarterback that rarely throws incompletions, but also stretches the field vertically. Why would they do anything else? Well, their running game has been effective, with veteran Rhamondre Stevenson as the lead horse and rookie TreVeyon Henderson as the explosive ball carrier that can create a chunk gain on any play. Henderson’s impact coming off the bench cannot be overstated. As shown in their Week 15 game against the Bills, he is their trump card for the rare circumstances that the passing game isn’t doing quite enough.

On the defensive side, very few names pop off the screen, but they’re far better than the sum of their parts. The unit is a true testament to Mike Vrabel’s ability to develop and maximize talent.

As much as credit should be given to the coaching staff’s development of players like K’Lavon Chaisson, the pre-established talent has had huge years. Christian Gonzalez has been an elite corner, locking down receivers and playing zone coverage at a high level. Free agent acquisition Milton Williams has been a great lightning to Christian Barmore’s thunder. In totality a sound defense.

The issues with this team arise when you look at their schedule. Yes, they, numerically, have had a fine pass rush, run defense, and coverage unit, but those numbers are skewed by playing against weaker offenses for a majority of the season. The team isn’t overly battle-tested, only playing against a team that finished with a winning record four times all season. Their only win of those four games came against their division rival Bills, who beat them later on in the season.

Many also question the quality of Maye’s supporting cast. Stefon Diggs has looked good, but can he be the featured weapon against Derek Stingley and the Texans, or Pat Surtain and the Broncos? The offensive line has also allowed the sixth highest pressure rate in the NFL.

Head coach Mike Vrabel can help this team put the pieces together properly to minimize these issues. The Titans had a lot of issues in 2019, but he was still able to lead that team to an AFC Championship as their head coach. No reason he won’t be able to replicate that success with the play he is getting out of his quarterback.

AFC #3 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars

Going into the season, the Jaguars didn’t strike me as a team that could be anything special. Trevor Lawrence just hasn’t played well enough to be the guy they drafted him to be. Yet here they are. Under Liam Coen’s leadership this team has shattered expectations.

After a shaky start, Coen has gotten the best out of Lawrence. Lawrence can fit the ball into tight windows and loft it over defenders, but he has always struggled to account for the difficulty of catching some of his passes. He often leads defenders directly into contact, which is why Brian Thomas Jr hasn’t had the same connection with him as he had with Mac Jones at the end of last year.

The addition of Jakobi Meyers and the increased usage of Parker Washington have allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw more risky passes over the middle. That is why, since the addition of Jakobi Meyers, the Jaguars have gone 8-1 and average 15.7 more points per game. That one loss was in Meyers’ first game and it was also his only game with under six targets.

The defense is also heating up at the right time. Anthony Campanile’s defense hasn’t allowed a positive EPA per play since Week 10. They win by forcing turnovers and with the offense consistently turning those turnovers into points, offenses rarely can stick to their usual offensive identity. The Jaguars’ 31 forced turnovers rank second in the league.

Linebacker Devin Lloyd has been the breakout star for this defense. Very few linebackers are as effective in coverage as Lloyd has been, and his impact has helped give edge rushers Trevon Walker and Josh Hines Allen the time they need to get to the quarterback.

Despite Walker and Hines-Allen’s presence, the pass rush has struggled to get home. The Jaguars have the fourth lowest sack rate in the NFL and a middle-of-the-pack pressure rate.

I also have concerns about their lack of playoff experience. Liam Coen is a first-year head coach, which raises some questions about his ability to lead one of the NFL’s youngest teams through these big games. Winning playoff games without prior experience can be very tough. Luckily, the team’s three seed should most likely give them homefield advantage for the majority of the playoffs, helping ease the tension of these huge games.

Teams that get hot before the playoffs have a great track record, and in the midst of an eight game win streak, it's hard to find a team with more momentum. We’ve seen Lawrence make one of the biggest comebacks in NFL history last time he was in the playoffs, and as of late we’ve seen elite quarterback play out of him. A scorching hot team with strong quarterback play and a defense that can create turnovers is very difficult to bet against.

AFC #4 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers

The last time the Steelers won a playoff game was in 2017. Mike Tomlin’s goal is to make sure that drought ends. That's why he brought in the same quarterback that beat him last time he coached his team to a Super Bowl.

15 years later, Aaron Rodgers may not be capable of the same things he did in 2011, but he has still shown he can fling the ball downfield with ease. The offense hasn’t asked him to do that much though. In fact, the Steelers really save the go-balls for when they have a favorable one-on one matchup. Arthur Smith has instead built this offense to play around Rodgers’ current offensive style. Constant check downs and mainly relying on yards after the catch. Rodgers’ 5.9 air yards per attempt and 2.59 second time to throw were both the lowest in the NFL.

This system has allowed Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren to shine as receiving weapons and make plays after the catch, and with D.K. Metcalf returning from suspension they’ll be more likely to find those mismatches on the outside and throw some deep shots.

The Steelers’ recipe for success is the play of their defense, specifically forcing turnovers and creating defensive explosives. The Steelers are second in the league in fumble recoveries and fourth in turnovers forced. Their biggest edge over the rest of the conference is their ability to take advantage of miscues.

From a down to down consistency standpoint though, they’re nothing special. Even T.J. Watt is having a much more pedestrian season than we’re used to seeing from him, with a measly 10.1% pressure rate. Even Alex Highsmith and Cam Heyward haven’t helped pick up Watt’s slack, as shown by the pass rush being 20th in pressure rate.

The blame cannot all go on the defensive line though, as the poor play of their secondary has played a role. This team misses Minkah Fitzpatrick desperately and has been getting torched over the top all season long.

The defense has been able to take possessions from opposing teams though and when Derrick Harmon has been in we’ve seen flashes of elite run defense. If the defense can make those plays and the offense can have a couple of dragged out possessions, Tomlin can likely end his playoff win drought.

AFC #5 Seed: Houston Texans

If you’re a believer in the old-school mentality that defense wins championships, the Houston Texans would be a hard team for you to bet against. With the lowest EPA allowed per play and points allowed per game, there’s no debate. This is the best defense in the league right now.

Their outstanding pass rush duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter can change games. With the two of them ranking top seven among defensive linemen in pressure rate, the quarterback’s job becomes much more difficult with these two ransacking the pocket.

Not only can they get to the quarterback, they also lock down opposing receivers. The Texans have the best secondary in the NFL, headlined by the league’s best corner, Derek Stingley. Having players of Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock and Jalen Pitre’s caliber alongside Stingley makes open receivers few and far between.

That high-powered pass rush tandem in combination with the lockdown secondary has allowed Houston to limit opponents to under 21 points in all but four games. The issues arise on the other side of the ball.

C.J. Stroud is a strong quarterback but throughout this season he has had some head-scratching decisions that have put games in jeopardy. There is no doubt, however, when he and star wideout are playing their best football, this offense can be explosive.

The issues with this offense mainly stem from the struggle on the line of scrimmage. The Texans are allowing the ninth-lowest time to pressure in the league and they’re just barely outside of the bottom ten in rushing yards before contact per carry.

To make matters worse, their running backs aren’t helping pick up the offensive line’s slack. Their combination of running backs, mainly featuring rookie fourth-round pick Woody Marks, is averaging the seventh-least yards after contact per carry. Nothing about their run game has worked well, which is why they’re in the bottom five in yards per rush and EPA per rush. Despite this, Nick Caley relies on this running game to set up the passing attack.

Even with their offensive woes, the Texans have been able to put together a nine game win streak, and there is a long history of teams in this league getting hot at the right time and ultimately hoisting a Lombardi. With this defense, they can definitely be the next example of the importance of momentum in the NFL.

AFC #6 Seed: Buffalo Bills

Since Mahomes and the Chiefs were knocked out of the playoffs, the commentary around the Bills has been that “this is their only shot.” I think it is important that people keep in mind that the rest of the AFC will see this the same way. The Bills will still need to play great football for the next few weeks.

Luckily, they have a quarterback who can keep this team in any game. Allen is a game-breaker. His ability to make plays off script and complete any pass imaginable keeps defensive coordinators up at night.

Pairing a quarterback like that with the run game that Buffalo has, with the NFL’s leading rusher James Cook, puts defenses in a predicament. Do they stack the box to stop this run game that is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, or do they focus on restricting Allen? Either way, you’re picking your poison, because if you gameplan for one, the other is going to haunt you all game.

The defensive side is where they’re far more vulnerable. They have been pitiful against the run. They’re allowing the third-highest EPA per rush in the league and while they’ve been better against the pass, teams won’t be forced to lean on the passing game because their run game will always put them ahead of the chains.

McDermott’s defenses have always struggled in the playoffs, but this offense has the ability to dominate, and without Patrick Mahomes to go toe-to-toe with Allen, they can go the distance. It’ll all come down to Allen being the one-man army he has been all year. Teams are likely going to score a lot of points against Buffalo but there are few quarterbacks better to win a shootout in the playoffs.

AFC #7 Seed: Los Angeles Chargers

Since Jim Harbaugh’s first press conference as the head coach of the Chargers, he’s praised Justin Herbert endlessly. Harbaugh has been on the record saying his main goal is to get Herbert into the Hall of Fame, and a successful playoff campaign here will help the 27-year-old get on the fast track to Canton.

Herbert’s film has spoken for itself. Due to injuries to his two starting tackles, Herbert has had to deal with a league-high 43.3% pressure rate. Despite this, Herbert has kept this team’s passing offense afloat. His ridiculous arm strength and improved pocket movement have allowed him to make some of the most superhuman plays of the season. When a team has a quarterback who can single-handedly make any play into positive yards, they can beat anyone.

On the receiving end has been one of the league’s biggest surprises. The trio of Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Keenan Allen have been remarkably effective. Each receiver has their own role, McConkey is the technical route runner, Johnston is the speedy deep threat, and Keenan Allen is the reliable possession player.

Greg Roman wants to rely on the running game but a deep playoff run is going to require him to embrace his best player and his connection with those three receivers.

Defensive coordinator Jessie Minter’s disguise-heavy defense is built for the modern NFL. With constant post-snap coverage rotations out of their two-high shell and sim pressures with their hybrid edge defenders, it’s a scheme built to give quarterbacks migraines.

The defense may not have the same amount of name value as some of the other defenses, but they've allowed the eighth-lowest in EPA per play. The breakout star that has really contributed to that is third-year edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu.

The defense is even stronger in the backend though, with the versatile Derwin James still shining and a really solid young corner room playing alongside him. It is one of the NFL’s most difficult units to face off against because of how well-rounded they are along with the schematic challenge it provides offenses.

Despite their strong defensive unit, the Chargers’ weak offensive line creates a lot of postseason issues that defenses will take advantage of. We know Herbert is capable of making up for these issues, but can he do that against four straight playoff-caliber teams?

The NFL playoffs are always must-watch television, but this year, with the future so clearly up in the air it should be an especially fun watch. These teams all have different formula for success and only the future can tell who’ll return home as Super Bowl champions.

All stats were provided by NextGenStats

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