Should Kevin O'Connell Give Up Play-Calling?

Kevin O'Connell has a 38–22 record over his 60 games as the Minnesota Vikings head coach. His 0.633 win percentage ranks first all-time among Vikings head coaches, including guys like Bud Grant, Dennis Green, and Mike Zimmer. Over those 60 games he has been the offensive play caller in every single one. In seasons past he has made questionable calls and had some bad games, but never before like this season.

This begs the question: Should Kevin O'Connell give up play-calling?

Short-Yardage Struggles

To put some statistics into perspective, Kevin O'Connell and JJ McCarthy have faced 22 situations in which the down and distance is 3rd or 4th down and 3 or fewer yards.

Kevin O'Connell's play-call & JJ McCarthy's results:

Run Plays: 5/6 converted 1st downs

Pass Plays: 0/14 converted with 2 INTs and 4 sacks

That is an 83% first-down conversion rate when Kevin O'Connell calls a run and a 0% conversion rate when he calls a pass. Yet he has over twice as many called passes as runs...

The Baltimore Breakdown

JJ McCarthy threw 42 passes in Sunday's loss to the Baltimore Ravens. That is the most he has thrown in his career going all the way back to his college days at Michigan.

Now, the confusing part about that is not only that McCarthy is in just his 4th start, but that the Vikings had only 13 total runs in the game from their running backs — who were averaging 5.5 yards per carry. And that's not even the most puzzling part. The Vikings went into halftime with a 10–9 lead, started the half with the ball, and ran it only seven times for the entire rest of the game.

Now, this is more than just Kevin O'Connell's lack of awareness that he has a starting quarterback playing in his 4th career game. McCarthy has to be better in these situations, and he will develop into that through time, but at the very least O'Connell could try to help his inexperienced quarterback out.

A Different Approach

Kevin O'Connell has to learn to call plays differently — keeping in mind that Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford are not his quarterbacks anymore, and that a 22-year-old playing in his first season is. The offense isn't being run as such. It is still the air attack O'Connell loves to call with his veteran, accurate pocket passers.

The Vikings are bottom five in rush-play percentage while averaging 4.8 yards per carry between Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. There is no reason they should not be trying to establish the run game more in order to help open up the rest of the field for JJ McCarthy and the offense.

Before considering whether someone else should call plays, it's important to understand the broader context. Detroit Lions HC Dan Campbell took over calling the offensive plays in their 44–22 victory over the Washington Commanders on Sunday. That means every head coach in the NFC North is calling plays for their offense. Whether it is for the better of the team or not, these coaches have egos and philosophies they believe in, which is why it is hard to believe that KOC would give up play-calling.

If Not O'Connell, Then Who?

If O'Connell were to hand over his play sheet to someone else, who would it be? Their offensive coordinator Wes Phillips has been in his position for four years now but has no regular-season play-calling experience. JJ McCarthy's quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, who spent 16 years in the NFL, could be an interesting candidate to shake up the play calls. McCown has only been a coach for a handful of years, but it could give the team some juice as he spends the most time with McCarthy as his position coach.

A bolder move? Recently fired Giants HC Brian Daboll could be an option for the Vikings. Likely not this season, but perhaps next as an offensive coordinator. Daboll spent almost four seasons in New York, where he won Coach of the Year in 2022 but finished with a 20–40–1 record. But that’s not the intriguing part. Daboll spent 2018–2021 with the Buffalo Bills as their offensive coordinator, where he helped Josh Allen develop from a raw rookie into the MVP-level quarterback we see today.

Could O’Connell and Daboll be a match made in heaven for McCarthy? Possibly. There’s only one way to find out, and my guess is we won’t see it until the 2026 season.

Overall, I do not think Kevin O'Connell will give up his play sheet, but I do have faith that he can turn it around. This will require him to take a big step, go against his philosophy and start to establish the run game instead of being an all-out air-raid offense for a (basically) rookie quarterback.

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