Week 11: What’s the Recipe for Beating the Bears?

The Minnesota Vikings (4–5) are set to face the Chicago Bears (6–3) at noon on Sunday, November 16th in Minnesota. The two teams faced off earlier in the season opener, when the Vikings won a 27–24 fourth-quarter thriller. McCarthy threw for two touchdowns and rushed for one to finish the Vikings’ comeback.

How to Exploit the Bears’ Defense

Despite their 6–3 record, the Bears may not be as good as you think. They have given up the 8th-most points in the NFL through nine games. On the other side, the Vikings rank 25th in offensive points this season.

Rush Yards per Attempt:

Vikings Offense: 4.6 yards gained (12th)

Bears Defense: 5.2 yards allowed (29th)

This could be a good place for the Vikings to start their game plan. Running the ball has become a major point of emphasis among fans this season, especially after Sunday’s loss to the Ravens. They rushed only 13 times in that game depsite averaging 5.53 yards per carry. They could definitely use a big rushing day to boost JJ McCarthy and the offense as a whole.

Net Pass Yards per Attempt:

Vikings Offense: 5.6 yards gained (25th)

Bears Defense: 7.3 yards allowed (31st)

The Bears’ defense overall seems to be struggling this season, and from an offensive perspective, this game puts the Vikings in a position to have one of their best days as a unit. It won't be easy, though, as the Vikings have faced their own struggles. It is going to require execution on all levels from the offense, but the obvious game plan is establish the run game early for Minnesota, while also trying to exploit the Bears’ weak pass defense.

Luckily for the Vikings, the Chicago Bears rank only 18th in sacks on the season and 23rd in pressure rate per dropback. This is good news for a Vikings offensive line that has allowed the 4th-highest sack percentage this season.

How the Vikings’ Defense Matches Up

Although the Vikings see favorable matchups on offense, their defense is going to be facing a pretty good Bears offensive unit so far this season.

Net Total Yards per Play:

Vikings Defense: 5.2 yards allowed (11th)

Bears Offense: 5.9 yards gained (8th)

Net Yards per Pass:

Vikings Defense: 6.3 yards allowed (19th)

Bears Offense: 6.7 yards gained (9th)

Rush Yards per Attempt:

Vikings Defense: 4.2 yards allowed (15th)

Bears Offense: 5.0 yards gained (4th)

Fortunately for the Bears, they have the edge in total yards per play and in the run- and pass-specific metrics. Although the Vikings’ defense is fairly middle-of-the-pack in some of those categories, you can never count out a Brian Flores–led unit.

The Bears have done a pretty good job protecting Caleb Williams, giving up the 4th-fewest sacks in the league. With that being said, Brian Flores has his defense ranked 2nd in pressure percentage per dropback.

Where the Vikings Need to Be Careful

A dark spot for the Vikings’ offense has been turnovers. They have the 7th-highest rate in the NFL, with 14.1% of offensive drives ending in a turnover—mostly coming from JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz interceptions.

Now the worst part: the Chicago Bears’ defense ranks first in the NFL in forcing drives to end in a turnover at 20.1%. It’s safe to say that ball security on Sunday is going to be key to the Vikings getting a victory.

The Recipe for Success

Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are 33–4 when they win or tie the turnover battle. This accounts for 86% of his total wins as head coach. This season, the Vikings have lost the turnover battle in five of nine games. O’Connell has won by it in the past, and it seems this will once again be the recipe for a Kevin O’Connell-led Vikings victory.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings’ defense matches up solidly against the Caleb Williams-led Bears, but it’s definitely going to require a good scheme day from Brian Flores and the Andrew Van Ginkel-led defense.

The Vikings will be without standout edge rusher Jonathan Greenard and will need a big performance from their 2024 first-round pick, Dallas Turner. They should get tight end Josh Oliver back, which will be an important boost to the run game. Center Ryan Kelly also returned to practice this week but won’t be activated from injured reserve yet. Most importantly, quarterback JJ McCarthy was removed from the injury report after briefly appearing with a throwing-hand issue.

I hope you enjoyed this article! If you did make sure to leave a like and review on it!

If you're interested in being notified when the next article comes out, be sure to scroll down to the "Free Subscription" form and subscribe!